Impacts of urbanization and real economic development on CO2 emissions in non-high income countries: Empirical research based on the extended STIRPAT model

Abstract

This article focuses on the effects of urbanization and economic development on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in non-high income countries using the extended STIRPAT model. Following the building idea of the IPAT model, CO2 emissions (I) are decomposed into nine factors: population, affluence, technology level, urbanization level, urban employment level, industrialization level, population carrying intensity of the real economy built on goods and services, CO2 emission intensity and energy intensity. Then the extended IPAT model is reconstructed as the extended STIRPAT model. Furthermore, based on panel data from 1991 to 2013 and using the extended STIRPAT model, this article respectively analyzes the effects of the driving forces, especially urbanization and real economic development, on CO2 emissions for non-high income countries, upper and lower middle-income countries. The results indicate that urbanization and real economic development have a small impact on CO2 emissions in non-high income countries. Accelerating urbanization and real economic development will not result in a significant increase in CO2 emissions. In fact, for upper middle-income countries, real economic development will lead to a decrease in CO2 emissions, and acceleration of the urbanization process will only cause a small increase in emissions. The main driving factors of CO2 emissions remain population, affluence, energy intensity and CO2 emission intensity. This article also quantitatively calculates the actual contribution rate of each driving force for the 1991–2013 period. The study contributes to understanding the emission characteristics and key driving forces in each type of countries, allowing for appropriate policy recommendations.