Impacts of Urban Shrinkage on Haze Pollution-Evidence from China

Abstract

This study focuses on 55 shrinking cities selected by the urban shrinkage index using data about the urban population of 250 prefecture-level Chinese cities from 2012 to 2017. It analyzes the theoretical impacts of urban shrinkage on haze pollution and the spatial distribution and autocorrelation of urban shrinkage. The spatial error model (SEM) and the fully modified least squares (FMOLSs) regression are used to empirically examine the impacts of urban shrinkage on haze pollution at national and regional levels. The results indicate that shrinking cities showed spatial agglomeration and that northeast China had the largest number of shrinking cities. Nationwide, urban shrinkage reduced haze pollution. An increase in the proportion of secondary industries, economic development, and built-up areas intensified haze pollution, while an increase in the green area in parks alleviated such pollution. Regionally, except for west China, the impacts of urban shrinkage on haze pollution were significantly negative. Urban shrinkage in central China had the greatest impacts on haze, followed by northeast China and east China. Haze pollution was intensified by the increase in the proportion of secondary industries in east, central and west China, alleviated by economic development in east and west China, slowed down by the increase in green area in parks in northeast, east and west China, and aggravated by the rise in built-up areas in northeast, central, and west China. Targeted suggestions are proposed herein to reduce haze pollution, adapt to urban shrinkage and build quality small cities based on local conditions.