Abstract
Urban growth, extreme climate, and mismanagement are crucial controlling factors that affect flood vulnerability at wadi catchments. Therefore, this study attempts to understand the impacts of these three factors on the flash flood vulnerability in different climatic regions in Egypt. An integrated approach is presented to evaluate the urban growth from 1984 to 2019 by using Google Images and SENTINEL-2 data, and to develop hazard maps by using a rainfall-runoff-inundation model (RRI). Annual rainfall trend analysis was performed to evaluate the temporal variability trend. The hazard maps that were created were classified into three categories (low, medium, and high) and integrated with the urban growth maps to evaluate the impacts on the flood-vulnerable areas. The results show a significant increase in urban growth resulting in an increase of prone areas for flood hazards over time. However, the degree of this hazard is mainly related to growth directions. Mismanagement affects urban growth directions in both planned and unplanned growth, whether by loss of control over unplanned growth or by deficiencies in approved plans. The rainfall analysis showed that there is no explicit relationship to increases or decreases in the flood vulnerable areas. An urban planning approach is recommended for risk reduction management based on a comprehensive study considering such factors.
Highlights
The trigger factors of flooding disaster impacts are natural, such as extreme rainfall events, high floods, and high tides, and anthropogenic, such as land use change (LUC), deforestation in upstream regions, and urbanization [1]
The main objectives of this research are as follows: (1) To understand the controlling factors that increase the vulnerable flood areas in arid regions, (2) to evaluate the interrelation between the urban growth and flood vulnerability quantitatively, and (3) to propose some recommendations based on the flood hazard maps for future mitigation and adaptation strategies under nonstationary conditions
Studies that have focused on the growth and and flood disasters, the rationale behind this study is to examine the triple interrelation between flood disasters, the rationale behind this study is to examine the triple interrelation mismanagement, extreme rainfall events, events, and urban growth in Egypt
Summary
The trigger factors of flooding disaster impacts are natural, such as extreme rainfall events, high floods, and high tides, and anthropogenic, such as land use change (LUC), deforestation in upstream regions, and urbanization [1]. Climate change and urbanization are among the various factors that contribute to increased flood disaster risks which hinder the current and future urban flood management strategies [2,3,4,5,6]. Floods that occur in urban cities usually result in negative consequences for human lives and properties. Nations [8] pointed out that 43% of natural disasters that occurred from 1995 to 2015 were water-related disasters, affecting more than half (56%) of all people. Its related consequences depend on the flood’s magnitude and system’s vulnerability
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