Impacts of transboundary coal air pollution from Balkan region to European public health

Abstract

Abstract Background Western Balkan region holds coal power plants that are old, inefficient and substandard. In 2016, the region’s 16 plants emitted more SO2 than the entire 250 European coal power plants. In this study we modelled the transboundary nature of air pollution affecting this region and EU. Methods We calculated health impacts and costs from Western Balkan coal plants by the following steps: (1) Identify coal power plants in the Western Balkans in 2016; (2) Source 2016 coal power plant emissions data; (3) Model the pollutant exposure resulting from the emissions from Western Balkan coal power plants; (4) Calculate health impacts associated with modelled pollutant exposures; (5) Attribute the health impacts to individual coal power plants; (6) Calculate the cost of the health impacts. Results The modeling shows that every year Western Balkans’ plants cause 3,000 premature deaths, 8,000 cases of bronchitis in children, and other chronic illnesses costing both health systems and economies a total of € 6.1-11.5 billion. The EU bears the majority of health cost, more than half of these health costs relate to the EU (€ 3.1 to 5.8 billion), a third (32%) to Western Balkan countries (€ 1.9 to 3.6 billion) and around 17% in other countries. Moreover, Bulgaria and Croatia’s health budgets are the most heavily impacted. Costs needed to cover the health impacts of Western Balkan coal pollution amount to € 0.3-0.7 billion. For Bulgaria this is the same as 10%-18% of the country’s total health expenditure in 2016. For Croatia (costs of € 0.2-0.4 billion), it amounts to 8%-14% of total health expenditure in 2016. Discussion These results imply an coal phase out to protect public health. Strong enforcement of the existing pollution control measures are needed. Political processes such as EU accession of Balkan countries may be a door to prioritise pollution control and air quality, in particular by excluding companies planning new coal power capacity from EU financing.