Impacts of the opening of the maglev railway on daily accessibility in Japan: A comparative analysis with that of the Shinkansen

Abstract

The Shinkansen, the first high-speed rail (HSR) service in the world, started operations in 1964 in Japan, where the world's first long-distance intercity magnetic levitation (maglev) line will open in 2027. In light of this, the study evaluated time-series changes in railway accessibility in Japan. The impact of opening the maglev line on accessibility was investigated by comparing it to Shinkansen. Accessibility was measured by modifying a daily accessibility model to include the concept of distance decay. Daily accessibility significantly increased between 1961 and 2000 with Shinkansen's development. However, after 2000, this trend weakened, and accessibility did not increase much in most cities. Comparing accessibility changes from 1961 to 1980 and those projected for 2020 to 2040 suggests that the impact on accessibility from maglev services will be smaller than that of Shinkansen for two main reasons. First, the reduction in travel time will be smaller because many Shinkansen lines will already be operating between large cities when the maglev line opens. Second, most of the positive effects of reduced travel time from the maglev line are negated by countrywide depopulation and a population concentration in metropolitan areas. The maglev line's effects are offset by depopulation. Therefore, parallel policies to increase the maglev line's effects must be implemented. In the rare case of Japan, where the HSR network has already expanded and the population is declining, the cost-effectiveness of maglev will be small. However, in many countries where such conditions do not apply, maglev lines are expected to be more effective.