Abstract

AbstractThe EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has had limited success in mitigating agriculture's environmental degradation. In this paper we simulate the impacts of the 2013 “greening” reform on biodiversity and ecosystem services in environmentally contrasting landscapes. We do this by integrating an agent‐based model of structural change with spatial ecological production functions, and show that the reform will likely fail to deliver substantial environmental benefits. Our study implies that greening measures need to be tailored to local conditions and priorities, to generate environmental improvements. Such spatial targeting of measures is though incompatible with the design of a common direct payments scheme.

Highlights

  • Agricultural intensification in Europe has resulted in loss of farmland biodiversity and degradation of ecological processes (Kleijn et al 2009)

  • The 2013 reform (CAP 2013 scenario) speeds up structural change in both regions compared to a political status quo (CAP 2003 scenario), as farms become fewer and larger in both regions in 2020

  • Note: *in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) 2003 scenario there is no Ecological Focus Area (EFA) obligation we show the land uses that would qualify as EFA

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Summary

Introduction

Agricultural intensification in Europe has resulted in loss of farmland biodiversity and degradation of ecological processes (Kleijn et al 2009). This poses significant risks, for the conservation of biodiversity, and for ecosystem services that underpin agricultural productivity, such as the pollination of flowering crops and biological control of crop pests by their natural enemies (Potts et al 2016). The EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has, in line with its original objectives, facilitated agricultural intensification in the past (Lefebvre, Espinosa, and Gomez y Paloma 2012). Access to CAP payments and the EU’s internal market is driving intensification in new member states from the former Eastern Bloc (Pe’er et al 2014). The environmental effectiveness of the 2013 reform is heavily debated (Pe’er et al 2014; Alons 2017)

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