Impacts of the Egyptian national screening and treatment programme for viral hepatitis C: A cost-effectiveness model.

Abstract

Egypt used to have one of the highest prevalences of HCV infection worldwide. The Egyptian Ministry of Health launched a national campaign for the detection and management of HCV to reduce its burden. This study aims to carry out a cost-effectiveness analysis to evaluate the costs and benefits of the Egyptian national screening and treatment programme. A disease burden and economic impact model was populated with the Egyptian national screening and treatment programme data to assess direct medical costs, health effects measured in disability-adjusted life years and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. The scenario was compared to a historical base case, which assumed that no programme had been conducted. Total number of viremic cases is expected to decrease in 2030 by 86% under the national screening and treatment programme, versus by 41% under the historical base case. Annual discounted direct medical costs are expected to decrease from $178 million in 2018 to $81 million by 2030 under the historical base case, while annual direct medical costs are estimated to have peaked in 2019 at $312 million before declining to $55 million by 2030 under the national screening and treatment programme. Under the programme, annual disability-adjusted life years are expected to decline to 127 647 by 2030, leading to 883 333 cumulative disability-adjusted life years averted over 2018-2030. The national screening and treatment programme is highly cost-effective by the year 2021, cost-saving by 2029 and expected to save about $35 million in direct costs and $4705 million in indirect costs by 2030.