Impacts of the corn grain ethanol industry on the United States agricultural sector

Abstract

The growth in ethanol production from corn starch in the United States has increased concerns about soil erosion, fertilizer and pesticide pollution, and greenhouse gas emission problems with expanded corn production. This study evaluated the effects of increased corn production on agricultural land use, tillage intensity, and the environment at the regional and national levels for the United States. The Policy Analysis System (POLYSYS) agricultural policy simulation model was used to estimate the impacts of a growing corn ethanol industry. The analysis provided a comparison for the 2007 through 2016 period of the projected impacts of ethanol production rising from 32.5 million kL y−1 (8.6 billion gal yr−1) in 2007 to 45.3, 60.4, and 67.9 million kL y−1 (12, 16, or 18 billion gal yr−1) by 2016. For each ethanol production scenario, POLYSYS was used to simulate crop production under alternative tillage practices for 305 growing regions in the United States, livestock production, crop and livestock demands, and national agricultural income. In addition, POLYSYS was used to simulate changes in water-induced soil erosion and sedimentation, carbon emissions, carbon sequestration, chemical expenditures, and fertilizer expenditures for each growing region.