Impacts of the Belt and Roads Initiative on Sustainability: Local Approaches to Spatial Restructuring in the Aras Special Economic Zones

Abstract

Spatial restructuring and regional economic development are closely associated with sustainability. Despite the considerable literature on urbanization’s impact on sustainable economic development and urban expansion, few studies have explored how FDI-led spatial restructuring affects the sustainability from a local people perspective. To fill this gap, in-depth interviews were conducted with 516 residents of Aras special economic zones in Iran to assess the impacts and responses to economic shifts and spatial restructuring resulting from the Belt and Road Initiative since 2013. Using the DPSIR framework and sustainability index as an evaluation tool, we assessed the degree of sustainability and viable uplift at the regional level. The Genetic Algorithm (GA) was also utilized to determine optimal values based on local approaches. Results indicate that regional heterogeneity, excessive state pressure, and development imbalances impact the study area. The findings enrich the theory of sustainability and can guide the formulation of spatial restructuring, decision-making, and policies at different stages of regional development. In addition to financial progress, people-centered development planning using local approaches should be a component of the development of special economic zones.