Impacts of Sudden Stratospheric Warming on Extreme Cold Events in Early 2021: An Ensemble‐Based Sensitivity Analysis

Abstract

AbstractImpacts of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) on three severe cold events (C1–C3) over Northern Hemisphere in early 2021 were investigated using subseasonal‐to‐seasonal ensemble forecasts. The SSW was characterized by successive displacement and split of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). Ensemble‐based sensitivity analyses showed that C1 over Siberia and C2 over western Canada were more related to SPV variations at a lead time of 1–2 weeks than C3 over central U.S. Within ensemble forecasts, a more elongated SPV with higher geopotential height over northern Eurasia were conducive to C1, whereas a SPV with the more poleward retreat from displacement contributed to C2. The forecast accuracy of stratospheric heights over the sensitive region at 2 weeks lead was significantly correlated with the forecast skill of the tropospheric circulation pattern preceding C1, implying that prediction of specific cold weather events may be improved by a better forecast of key features in SPV variations.