Abstract
Global sea level rise (SLR) variations have undeniably begun to make an impact on highly vulnerable economies. These impacts of SLR are a key component of the projected economic damage of climate change, an important input to climate change policies and adaptive measures. This paper considers SLR projections and its impact on the economy and includes a consolidation of various related studies. Estimated global gross domestic product (GDP) loss by 2100 ranges from 0.3% to as high as of 9.3% (Hinkel et al. 2014; Pycroft, Abrell, and Ciscar 2015). Climate change impact should be addressed at the global level through a locally focused effort where education and acceptance by all stakeholders are crucial and warranted. Further, this paper tackles several adaptive strategies as a response to SLR which include retreat, accommodation, and protection. The retreat strategy simulates that SLR causes the loss of inundated land and incurs planned relocation (migration) costs above a certain sea level. The accommodation strategy allows usage of vulnerable areas or land and limits damage by flood-proofing or raising structures. Finally, the protection strategy projects that land will be protected from SLR damage by sea walls or other barriers of a certain height. On the other hand, Diaz (2016) estimates a median adaptation cost from migration at 16% of GDP under the least-cost strategy by 2050. In general, the education of and the acceptance by the concerned local community will be crucial in the successful implementation of SLR adaptation strategies, notwithstanding parallel mitigation efforts on a global scale.
Highlights
The global sea level during the past few million years’ ice age cycles has been varying by more than 100 meters (m).1 Over the last century, sea levels have been rising much faster than in other previous millennia
The education of and the acceptance by the concerned local community will be crucial in the successful implementation of sea level rise (SLR) adaptation strategies, notwithstanding parallel mitigation efforts on a global scale
Asian Development Bank (ADB) (2013) finds that, regardless of which model is used, the results suggest the Pacific will be greatly affected by climate change by 2050 and losses are projected to rise over time under all scenarios, and would be largest with high emissions scenarios
Summary
The global sea level during the past few million years’ ice age cycles has been varying by more than 100 meters (m). Over the last century, sea levels have been rising much faster than in other previous millennia. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2014), fisheries and aquaculture provide livelihoods to 10%–12% of the world’s population which means that healthy oceans represent jobs, food, and protection This mounting pressure on existing links of people to economic resources will definitely have corresponding negative impacts on socioeconomic activities and growth in the long run. This paper surveys the potential impacts of SLR to economic growth, tourism, and migration, as well as the probable scenarios of SLR on economic activities for policy making and poverty alleviation in the long run It explores the various adaptive measures and the underlying cost to consider to combat SLR, especially for vulnerable countries, and their implications.
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