Impacts of residential heating intervention measures on air quality and progress towards targets in Christchurch and Timaru, New Zealand

Abstract

Abstract Elevated wintertime particulate concentrations in the New Zealand cities of Christchurch and Timaru are mostly attributed to the burning of wood and coal for residential heating. A carrot-and-stick approach was adopted for managing air quality in Christchurch, where strict intervention measures were introduced together with a residential heater replacement programme to encourage householders to change to cleaner forms of heating. A similar approach was only recently implemented for Timaru. This paper presents the results of a partial accountability analysis, where the impact of these measures on the target source, PM10 emissions, and PM10 concentrations are quantified. A statistical model was developed to estimate trends in the concentrations, which were tested for significance after accounting for meteorological effects, and to estimate the probability of meeting air quality targets. Results for Christchurch and Timaru are compared to illustrate the impacts of differing levels of intervention on air quality. In Christchurch, approximately 34,000 (76%) open fires and old solid fuel burners were replaced with cleaner heating technology from 2002 to 2009, and total open fires and solid fuel burner numbers decreased by 45%. Over the same time period, estimated PM10 emissions reduced by 71% and PM10 concentrations by 52% (maxima), 36% (winter mean), 26% (winter median) and 41% (meteorology-adjusted winter means). In Timaru, just 3000 (50%) open fires and old solid fuel burners were replaced from 2001 to 2008, with total open fire and solid fuel burner numbers reduced by 24%. PM10 emissions declined by 32%, with low reductions in the PM10 concentrations (maxima decreased by 7%, winter means by 11% and winter medians by 3%). These findings, supported by the results of the meteorology corrected trend analysis for Christchurch, strongly indicate that the combination of stringent intervention measures and financial incentives has led to substantial air quality improvements in the city. The lesser impact of more lenient rules and the late introduction of an incentives programme are obvious on air quality in Timaru. Trends established for the two cities were extrapolated under various scenarios to determine the likelihood of meeting air quality targets. In Christchurch the probability of compliance is low and is essentially impossible for Timaru if recent trends continue.