Abstract
This paper summarises the simulated effects on Finnish agricultural production and trade of a 20% decrease in Finnish demand for red meat (beef, pork, lamb). According to our results, reduced red meat consumption would be offset by increased consumption of poultry meat, eggs, dairy products and fish, as well as small increases in consumption of fruits and vegetables, peas, nuts, cereal products and sweets. By including the derived demand changes in an agricultural sector model, we show that livestock production in Finland, incentivised by national production-linked payments for milk and bovine animals, would decrease by much less than 20% due to the complex nature of agricultural production and trade. Overall, assuming unchanged consumer preferences and agricultural policy, a 20% reduction in red meat consumption is not likely to lead to a substantial decrease in livestock production or changed land use, or greenhouse gas emissions, from Finnish agriculture.
Highlights
It is becoming increasingly clear that what people eat has a significant impact on the environment in general and on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in particular (Garnett 2008, Vinnari 2008)
We analysed the likely impacts of a 20% reduction in red meat demand on Finnish agricultural production, assuming stable consumer preferences, expected agricultural product markets and no change in agricultural policies
Assuming minimal deviation from observed consumption patterns, we find that reduced red meat consumption would imply increased consumption of poultry meat, eggs, dairy products and fish, while there would be small increases in consumption of fruits and vegetables, peas and nuts, cereal products and sweets
Summary
It is becoming increasingly clear that what people eat has a significant impact on the environment in general and on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in particular (Garnett 2008, Vinnari 2008). Since production of beef and lamb causes significantly higher GHG emissions than pork and poultry meat, reducing consumption of meat from ruminants is considered one of the most effective means for consumers to decrease GHG emissions through their food choices. Consumers have been advised to replace red meat (beef, pork, and lamb) with poultry meat Such replacement has been stated as one of the first changes to be implemented, among other such as reducing airline travelling, as a means of reducing GHG emissions through consumption and lifestyle choices. Such a change is recommended in recent dietary recommendations which advice replacing saturated fats with non-saturated fats (VRN 2005)
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