Impacts of Rapid Socioeconomic Development on Cropping Intensity Dynamics in China during 2001–2016

Le Li,Zurui Ao,Yaolong Zhao,Xulong Liu

doi:10.3390/ijgi8110519

Abstract

Changes in cropping intensity reflect not only changes in land use but also the transformation of land functions. Although both natural conditions and socioeconomic factors can influence the spatial distribution of the cropping intensity and its changes, socioeconomic developments related to human activities can exert great impacts on short term cropping intensity changes. The driving force of this change has a high level of uncertainty; and few researchers have implemented comprehensive studies on the underlying driving forces and mechanisms of these changes. This study produced cropping intensity maps in China from 2001 to 2016 using remote sensing data and analyzed the impacts of socioeconomic drivers on cropping intensity and its changes in nine major agricultural zones in China. We found that the average annual cropping intensity in all nine agricultural zones increased from 2001 to 2016 under rapid socioeconomic development, and the trends in the seven major agricultural zones were significantly increased (p < 0.05), based on a Mann–Kendall test, except for the Northeast China Plain (NE Plain) and Qinghai Tibet Plateau (QT Plateau). Based on the results from the Geo-Detector, a widely used geospatial analysis tool, the dominant factors that affected cropping intensity distribution were related to the arable land output in the plain regions and topography in the mountainous regions. The factors that affected cropping intensity changes were mainly related to the arable land area and crop yields in northern China, and regional economic developments, such as machinery power input and farmers’ income in southern China. These findings provide useful cropping intensity data and profound insights for policymaking on how to use cultivated land resources efficiently and sustainably.

Highlights

Increasing demand for land outputs encourages farmers to intensify their use of arable land [1,2,3,4]
The enhanced vegetation index (EVI) time series were derived from the surface reflectance data from both moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra and Aqua data, which were further synthesized based on the minimum blue compositing method [32]
As topography changed from mountain to plain, the cropping intensity increased gradually from west to east

Summary

Introduction

Increasing demand for land outputs encourages farmers to intensify their use of arable land [1,2,3,4]. Understanding the landscape pattern and changing mechanism in multiple cropping could help provide a scientific reference for the planning of arable land uses [11,12,13,14]. Social, economic, and technological factors can affect regional land use changes on a short time scale, while natural factors cause changes in land cover through a relatively long process of succession. Changes in cropping intensity can affect social and economic development [21,22]. Global urbanization has led to a significant abandonment of arable land in many developed countries and regions [23,24,25]. By understanding changes in cropping intensity, it is relevant to policy to explore the process of rapid urbanization and the interactions between human activities and land cultivation. The lack of continuous and relatively high spatial-resolution cropping intensity products has limited our ability to understand the changes of cropping intensity and the underlying driving forces over regions

Objectives

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion