Impacts of projected climate change on pasture growth and safe carrying capacities for 3 extensive grazing land regions in northern Australia

Abstract

The northern beef industry is a major component of the regional economies of Queensland, Northern Territory and northern Western Australia, and has contributed an estimated $5 billion to Australia’s economy in 2009-10. Projected climate change will have an adverse impact on Australia’s agricultural production (McKeon et al. 2008), with an expected 3.5% decline in beef production in northern Australia by 2030 (Heyhoe et al. 2008). The GRASP pasture production model (McKeon et al. 2000) has been used to evaluate impacts of climate change in Australia’s rangelands (Crimp et al. 2002; McKeon et al. 2008), with the positive effects of higher carbon dioxide (CO2) on pasture growth likely to be offset by reductions in pasture productivity and digestibility due to lower rainfall and higher temperatures (Crimp et al. 2002). The impacts of 3 projected future climates on livestock carrying capacity of grazing lands in the Fitzroy, Maranoa-Balonne and Victoria River District regions were assessed using GRASP.