Impacts of preseason drought on vegetation spring phenology across the Northeast China Transect

Abstract

Vegetation phenology is undergoing profound changes in response to the recent increases in the intensity and frequency of drought events. However, the mechanisms by which drought affects the start of the growing season (SGS) are poorly understood particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. Here, we identified varying degrees of preseason drought events and analyzed the sensitivity of the SGS to preseason drought across the Northeast China Transect (NECT). Our results showed that drought caused a delayed SGS in grassland ecosystems, but an advanced SGS within forest ecosystems. These contrasting responses to preseason drought reflected different adaptive strategies between vegetation types. The SGS was shown to be highly sensitive to short timescales drought (1–3 months) in semi-arid grasslands where annual precipitation is 200–300 mm (i.e. SAGE200–300). Biomes within this region were found to be most vulnerable out of all the ecosystems to drought. Given the frequent nature of droughts in the mid-latitudes, a drought early warning system was recommended accompanied by improved modeling of how the SGS will be affected by intensified drought under future climate change.