Abstract
Achieving mode shift in the transport sector will help Australia to meet its target for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, although robust data on its effectiveness have previously been limited. This analysis provides valuable new information on mode shift impacts on emissions in Australia and demonstrates some recently developed assessment tools. The analysis considers the potential of a shift from road to rail to reduce well-to-wheel (WTW) emissions (as CO2-equivalents, CO2-e) in 2019, 2030, and 2050, specifically for a case study involving the transport of passengers and freight between Brisbane and Melbourne. The analysis provides emission intensities (EIs) in grams per passenger-km (g/pkm) and grams per tonne-km (g/tkm), as well as annualized emissions, and considers the variability and uncertainty in the estimates using a probabilistic approach. The transfer of passengers and freight from road to rail has the potential to significantly reduce emissions. Electric rail delivers the largest and least uncertain emission reductions. For passenger transport, the EI of electric rail (12 g CO2-e/pkm in 2030; 6.5 g CO2-e/pkm in 2050) is considerably lower than that of road transport (143.2 g CO2-e/pkm in 2030; 58.9 g CO2-e/pkm in 2050), and the uncertainty is lower. For freight transport, the EI of electric rail (8.6 g CO2-e/tkm in 2030; 5.0 CO2-e/tkm in 2050) is also substantially lower than that for road transport (48.3 g CO2-e/tkm in 2030; 29.5 g CO2-e/tkm in 2050). The EI for diesel rail freight (27.0 g CO2-e/tkm in 2030; 26.1 g CO2-e/tkm in 2050) is around half of the value for road transport in 2030, but road transport becomes more competitive by 2050. The complete transfer of passengers between Brisbane and Melbourne from road to electric rail would reduce annual WTW emissions for passenger transport by 75 – 90%, depending on the year. The complete transfer of freight from road to diesel rail would reduce annual emissions by 45% in 2019 and 2030 and by 10% in 2050. The study and tools will help researchers, policymakers, transport/land-use planners, and network operators to quantify, design, and implement mode shift measures to reduce emissions.
Published Version
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