Impacts of measured data uncertainty on urban stormwater models

Abstract

Summary Assessing uncertainties in models due to different sources of errors is crucial for advancing urban drainage modelling practice. This paper explores the impact of input and calibration data errors on the parameter sensitivity and predictive uncertainty by propagating these errors through an urban stormwater model (rainfall runoff model KAREN coupled with a build-up/wash-off water quality model). Error models were developed to disturb the measured input and calibration data to reflect common systematic and random uncertainties found in these types of datasets. A Bayesian approach was used for model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. It was found that random errors in measured data had minor impact on the model performance and sensitivity. In general, systematic errors in input and calibration data impacted the parameter distributions (e.g. changed their shapes and location of peaks). In most of the systematic error scenarios (especially those where uncertainty in input and calibration data was represented using ‘best-case’ assumptions), the errors in measured data were fully compensated by the parameters. Parameters were unable to compensate in some of the scenarios where the systematic uncertainty in the input and calibration data were represented using extreme worst-case scenarios. As such, in these few worst case scenarios, the model’s performance was reduced considerably.