Impacts of Major Changes in China's COVID-19 Prevention and Control Policies on Emergency Department Visits: A Quasi-Experiment.

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control policies on the frequency of emergency department (ED) visits in a large tertiary hospital in central China, from January 2018 to September 2023. We conducted a multi-stage interrupted time series analysis to investigate the impact of various epidemic control policies on weekly ED visits at a tertiary hospital in Hunan Province, China. The study period ranged from January 1, 2018, to September 30, 2023, and was divided into four distinct periods: pre-epidemic, pandemic, normalized control, and end of control. Using a quasi-Poisson regression model, we examined the specific effects of these policies on emergency visits, with a particular focus on stratifying patients based on respiratory versus non-respiratory diseases. Compared to the pre-pandemic period, the number of ED visits in a tertiary hospital decreased by 38.5% (95% CI: 25.1% to 49.8%) during the COVID-19 pandemic, of which the number of ED visits for respiratory diseases increased by 79.4% (95% CI: 13.2% to 177.2%) and the number of ED visits for non-respiratory diseases decreased by 45.9% (95% CI: -55.7% to -34.2%). After the end of the epidemic control, the total number of ED visits increased by 31.5% (95% CI: 19.1% to 45.0%), with the number of ED visits for respiratory diseases rising by 379.2% (95% CI: 275.9% to 511.8%), but with no significant change in the number of ED visits for non-respiratory emergencies. Control policies were associated with people avoiding emergency care for non-respiratory related reasons during the pandemic, while the end of control policies was associated with a sharp rise in emergency care for respiratory diseases. This study provides a scientific basis for the different changes in ED visits under the implementation of varying epidemic prevention and control policies.