Impacts of Land-Use Change on the Hydrology of Lake Tana Basin, Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia.

Abstract

Human activities impact hydrology through changes in land use and land cover. This study examins the effects of changing land use on hydrological processes using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model. The data is acquired from Landsat 4‐5 Thematic Mapper (TM) in 1989, Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) in 2005, and Landsat 8 Operational Land Inventory (OLI) in 2019. Image preprocessing, which includes georeferencing, radiometric and atmospheric correction, image enhancement, band composite, mosaicking, and sub‐setting, are performed. After that, supervised classification, accuracy assessment, and change detection are carried out. The hydrological changes in 1989, 2005, and 2019 are analyzed using land‐use maps. The SWAT model's calibration, validation, and sensitivity analysis are performed using the Integrated Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis Tool in the four main rivers of the basin. Farmlands and built‐up lands are found to have steadily increased in the basin, while shrublands, grasslands, and bare lands declined. Due to an expansion of agricultural and built‐up lands and a decrease in shrublands and grasslands, the basin's mean annual water yield and surface runoff increased in 2019, while evapotranspiration and lateral flow decreased compared to 1989 and 2005. Therefore, future watershed and basin management shall consider changing land use.