Impacts of Internal and External Macroeconomic Factors on Firm Stock Price in an Expansion Econometric model—A Case in Vietnam Real Estate Industry

Abstract

After the global economic crisis 2007–2011 and the recent post-low inflation 2014–2015, Viet Nam economies, its financial and stock market as well as real estate market experienced indirect and direct impacts on their operation, system and stock price. Although some economists have done researches on the relationship among macro economic factors such as: consumer price index (CPI), inflation, GDP…, this paper aims to consider the interaction between macro economic factors such as Viet Nam inflation and GDP growth rate, US inflation, exchange rate, risk free rate and other macro factors, and esp. their impacts on stock price of Vingroup (VIC), a big Vietnam real estate firm, in the context Viet Nam and the US economies receive impacts from global economic crisis. This is one main objective of this research paper. This research paper finds out VIC stock price has a negative correlation with risk free rate in VN and deposit rate of VN commercial banks, but has a positive correlation with lending rate in Vietnam. And the statistical analysis will generate results which help us to suggest macro policies in favor of the local stock and financial market. Real estate industrial risk over years has been affected much by macro economic risk, credit risk, and legal risk; therefore, government bodies need to issue proper macro economic legal, financial and credit policies in order to stimulate, develop stock market and reduce workload pressure for Vietnam bank system.