Abstract
Predicting the future changes in river ice development and impacts on seasonal sediment transport requires more in-depth examination of present river ice cover growth processes. This paper therefore investigates: (1) the impacts of hydro-climatically varying years on river ice development in a Scandinavian subarctic meandering river and (2) the accuracy of existing analytical models for predicting ice thickness growth and ice decay. Stefan’s ice growth equation (version by Michel et al.) and Bilello’s ice decay equation are applied to varying hydro-climatic conditions experienced in the years 2013–2019. Estimates from these equations are compared with observed field conditions such as ice thicknesses, ice clearance dates and freeze-thaw days. Overall, the equations were most accurate in the winter of 2016–2017 when the maximum mid-winter snow thickness value was high, the number of freeze-thaw days was the closest to the long-term average of northern Scandinavia, and the rate of thermal snow-melt in the subsequent spring was slow. The equations would need to be adjusted to take into account expected future changes to conditions such as shorter winters, less snow formation and increased frequency of air temperatures crossing 0 °C.
Highlights
Estimating or predicting the thickness of river ice and timing of ice breakups in polar regions is made difficult due to the multitude of processes in ice formation, growth and breakup that are highly dependent on local river morphology and hydrology
The main parameters affecting the lateral growth of border ice are heat loss and flow velocity, with field studies showing a positive relationship between the cumulative number of days below 0 ◦ C
Despite that previous studies analyzing for the changes in the river ice break-up dates within Europe, or fine-tuning of equations based on the data from North-American rivers, the previous studies have not fully analyzed how accurate the simple ice growth and decay equations work during hydrologically variable years in rivers of northern Europe
Summary
Estimating or predicting the thickness of river ice and timing of ice breakups in polar regions is made difficult due to the multitude of processes in ice formation, growth and breakup that are highly dependent on local river morphology and hydrology. River freezing tends to start with skim and border ice formation along the river banks and the edges of bars as soon as the water has cooled down [1]. Slush or floe formation may take place prior to stable ice cover formation in turbulent rivers [2]. Once a stable ice cover has formed, it thickens thermally downward due to heat transfer processes based on meteorological conditions
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