Impacts of High-Speed Rail on Regional Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of the Moderated Mediation Effects

Abstract

Transportation infrastructure is crucial for economic growth. Nonetheless, conclusions from empirical investigations concerning the impacts of high-speed rail (HSR) on regional economic growth exhibit inconsistency and are even controversial. In this work, we incorporate the HSR variable into the traditional Dixit–Stiglitz–Krugman (DSK) model, and establish both a structural equation model (SEM) and a threshold model to verify the nonlinear and volatile relationship between HSR development and regional economic growth. The main conclusions are as follows: The opening of HSR (HSR_O), the service intensity of HSR (HSR_S), and the time-cumulative effect of HSR (HSR_T) all have a positive impact on regional economic growth through market size, with labor and capital stock acting as moderating variables. Only under the condition that the regional capital stock exceeds 141.90 million yuan (US$20.56 million), 122.24 million yuan (US$17.71 million), and 128.70 million yuan (US$18.65 million), respectively, will HSR_O, HSR_S, and HSR_T have a favorable effect on regional economic growth. However, the varying influence on regional economic growth is minimally related to labor stock. Finally, directions for further research, and policy implications of the development of HSR for regional planners and local authorities are proposed.