Abstract
Abstract Climate change promotes variations in climatic elements necessary for crop growth and development, such as temperature and rainfall, potentially impacting yields of staple crops. The objective of this study was to assess future climate projections, derived from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and their impacts on second season maize in a region of Mato Grosso state. Field experiments in the 15/16 season comprising different sowing dates and hybrids maturities in rainfed conditions were used for crop model adjustment and posterior simulation of experiments. Crop simulations comprised historical (1980-2010) and future (2010-2100) time frames combined with local crop management practices. Results showed decreases of 50-89% in grain yields, with the most pessimistic scenarios at the latest sowing date at the end of the century. Decreases in the duration of crop cycle and in the efficiency of water use were observed, indicating the negative impacts of projected higher temperatures and drier conditions in crop development. Results highlight the unfeasibility of practicing late sowing dates in second season for maize in the future, indicating the necessity of adjusting management practices so that the double-cropping production system is possible.
Highlights
Maize is one of the most economically important crops in Brazil
Main agricultural municipalities in Mato Grosso state are located in the as Tropical wet (Aw) climatic zone, wherein the double cropping system is commonly practiced
While Minuzzi and Lopes, (2015), Bassu et al (2014), did not present sowing date and hybrid maturity variation in its assessment of impact of climate change on maize in Midwestern Brazil, in this study we found the strong evidence of the unfeasibility of late sowing dates on second season maize, suggesting the necessity of shifting to early dates and/or imposing other management practices, such as irrigation
Summary
Maize is one of the most economically important crops in Brazil. According to the National Company of storage and supply (CONAB, 2017), the crop is projected to provide more than 87 thousands of tons of production in the 2017/18 agricultural season, of which more than 89% coming from Central-Southern portion of the country (which include Midwestern, Southern and Southeastern regions). Due to the overall Brazil’s warm climate, a doublecropping system is usually practiced in great part of its territory, including states that goes from Southern (e.g. Paraná) all the way to Midwestern (e.g. Mato Grosso) political regions. In this context, in which the most common cultivated crops are soybean and maize in the first and second season, respectively, it is of main importance the occurrence of general warm temperatures during the autum-winter, due to the risk of frost and consequent maize yields failure, a condition not found in the southernmost states (Duarte, 2004). The importance of an earlier sowing date is widely acknowledged and even suggested by government initiatives (BRASIL, 2017) in order to avoid as much water stress as possible
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