Abstract
Freight transport policies have been developed to reduce air pollution in China. This paper aims to evaluate the impact of a freight modal shift on PM2.5 concentrations using the panel data of 30 provinces in China over the period 1999–2016. The direct and spillover effects of a freight modal shift on PM2.5 concentrations in China, as well as the effects of other socioeconomic factors, were estimated by employing spatial dynamic panel data models. In particular, the channel through which the freight modal shift might be beneficial in reducing PM2.5 concentrations was examined. The results show that PM2.5 concentrations in China do not only decrease with a modal shift of freight from road to rail in a province, but also and to a larger extent with that in neighboring provinces. However, there exist heterogeneous effects across different regions of China. The interaction between a freight modal shift and energy efficiency may lead to a decrease in the PM2.5 concentrations, but only in the central and western regions. These findings provide suggestions for government policies directed to sustainable development.
Highlights
Air pollution, especially fine particulate air pollution, has become one of the major environmental issues in China
We estimated the spatial effects of a freight modal shift and investigated the channel through which a road-to-rail freight modal shift may be beneficial for the investigated channel throughwe which a road-to-rail modal shift may beneficial forwith the environment.the
Almost all of the Lagrange Multiplier tests for spatial lag and error dependence reject the null hypothesis of no spatial dependence, which points to the spatial Durbin model as the favorite specification [43]
Summary
Especially fine particulate air pollution, has become one of the major environmental issues in China. The extremely severe haze events that occurred in the first quarter of 2013 affected about 13.5% of the land area and 800 million people in China [1]. The particulate matter pollution threatens air quality, climates and human health. Fine particulate matter, which can enter the lungs and even the blood, is responsible for adverse health effects, including an increased risk of premature mortality and higher rate of adverse respiratory health indicators [2]. The adverse effect of particulate matter pollution causes substantial economic losses. It is estimated that without a pollution control policy, the particulate matter pollution in China will lead to a 2% GDP loss and 25.2 billion
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