Abstract
Background Xinxiang, a city in Henan Province, suffered from frequent floods due to persistent and heavy precipitation from 2004 to 2010. In the same period, dysentery was a common public health problem in Xinxiang, with the proportion of reported cases being the third highest among all the notified infectious diseases. Objectives We focused on dysentery disease consequences of different degrees of floods and examined the association between floods and the morbidity of dysentery on the basis of longitudinal data during the study period. Design A time-series Poisson regression model was conducted to examine the relationship between 10 times different degrees of floods and the monthly morbidity of dysentery from 2004 to 2010 in Xinxiang. Relative risks (RRs) of moderate and severe floods on the morbidity of dysentery were calculated in this paper. In addition, we estimated the attributable contributions of moderate and severe floods to the morbidity of dysentery. Results A total of 7591 cases of dysentery were notified in Xinxiang during the study period. The effect of floods on dysentery was shown with a 0-month lag. Regression analysis showed that the risk of moderate and severe floods on the morbidity of dysentery was 1.55 (95% CI: 1.42–1.670) and 1.74 (95% CI: 1.56–1.94), respectively. The attributable risk proportions (ARPs) of moderate and severe floods to the morbidity of dysentery were 35.53 and 42.48%, respectively. Conclusions This study confirms that floods have significantly increased the risk of dysentery in the study area. In addition, severe floods have a higher proportional contribution to the morbidity of dysentery than moderate floods. Public health action should be taken to avoid and control a potential risk of dysentery epidemics after floods.
Highlights
Xinxiang, a city in Henan Province, suffered from frequent floods due to persistent and heavy precipitation from 2004 to 2010
The morbidity of dysentery, monthly cumulative precipitation (MCP), monthly numbers of days with precipitation (MNDP), monthly average temperature (MAT), monthly average air pressure (MAAP), and monthly average relative humidity (MARH) were significantly different between flooded and non-flooded months, which indicated that the climatic conditions differed between the months with or without floods
The results indicated that moderate and severe floods were positively correlated to the monthly morbidity of dysentery with no month lagged (r 00.24, p00.03)
Summary
A city in Henan Province, suffered from frequent floods due to persistent and heavy precipitation from 2004 to 2010. Dysentery was a common public health problem in Xinxiang, with the proportion of reported cases being the third highest among all the notified infectious diseases. Design: A time-series Poisson regression model was conducted to examine the relationship between 10 times different degrees of floods and the monthly morbidity of dysentery from 2004 to 2010 in Xinxiang. We estimated the attributable contributions of moderate and severe floods to the morbidity of dysentery. Regression analysis showed that the risk of moderate and severe floods on the morbidity of dysentery was 1.55 (95% CI: 1.42Á1.670) and 1.74 (95% CI: 1.56Á1.94), respectively. The attributable risk proportions (ARPs) of moderate and severe floods to the morbidity of dysentery were 35.53 and 42.48%, respectively. Severe floods have a higher proportional contribution to the morbidity of dysentery than moderate floods. Public health action should be taken to avoid and control a potential risk of dysentery epidemics after floods
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have