Abstract
Abstract Observations show that the amplitude of the annual atmospheric carbon dioxide cycle has increased. Lagged correlations between carbon dioxide, temperature, and vegetation suggest a modulation by ecosystem response, but the mechanisms remain unclear. Hypotheses include an early season uptake increase and/or winter respiration increase related to climate warming, and increased cycling in cooler conditions caused by disturbances such as fire. The first hypotheses suggest a positive feedback to regional warming, whereas the last suggests a negative feedback. Here it is shown that fire, as it influences species composition, can serve to enhance the increase in early season uptake but that a crucial determinant for the sign of the feedback is the impact of climate change on soil moisture.
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