Abstract

The objective of this research is to examine impacts of exchange rate volatility and FDI on efficiency of the Vietnamese agricultural sector at the provincial level for the period 1998-2011. Due to the characteristic of high uncertainty in agricultural production, the chance-constrained programming model would be used to estimate efficiency of the agricultural production sector. In order to study impacts of exchange rate volatility and FDI, we employ the two-stage model. In the first stage, we use the chance-constrained programming model to measure technical efficiency and ARIMA model to quantify exchange rate volatility. In the second stage, we use the fixed effect model to evaluate impacts of exchange rate volatility and FDI on efficiency of agricultural production in poor and rich provinces. The estimated results show that fluctuation in exchange rate volatility would reduce efficiency in agricultural production but FDI has an insignificant impact on the efficient production in Vietnam agricultural sector.

Highlights

  • After economic transformation, Vietnam, which was the rice importer before 1980, has become the third largest rice exporter in the world in 1989

  • Namely inverse of (2), to measure technology efficiency in agricultural sector for each province in Vietnam in the period 1998-2011. These values of technical efficiency are measured under the assumption of constant returns to scale within sixty provinces in the period 1998-2011

  • The results show that agricultural production in Ho Chi Minh city has efficiency score lying in the group of ten best provinces within 12 years, and lying on the frontier curve in 9 years

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Summary

Introduction

Vietnam, which was the rice importer before 1980, has become the third largest rice exporter in the world in 1989. The volume of rice exports increased from 2 million tons in 1990 to over 3.6 million tons in 2000. The major rice importers of Vietnam consist of China, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, How to cite this paper: Minh, N.K., Van Khanh, P. and Hung, N.V. In 2010, India and Thailand were the two largest rice exporters in the world while Vietnam was at the third position. In 2011, Vietnam exceeded Thailand in terms of volume of rice exports to become the second largest after India. In terms of value of rice exports, Vietnam is still behind Thailand because the quality of exported rice from Vietnam is lower than one of Thailand, and thereby the price is lower

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