Abstract
As China has promoted the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) since 2014 and some CIS countries including Russia established Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in 2015, the trans-Eurasian land transport has gained attentions. Under this background, this paper examines two questions. The first question is how significantly the recent strategic policies such as BRI and EAEU could shift container cargo from maritime shipping and land transport. The other is how much the shift could affect Russian Far East. To answer these questions, the authors estimated their impacts on cargo volume using the intermodal network simulation model. The simulation results indicate that the cargo volume shifted would be about 10 percent of the total container flows between Asia and Europe, under our assumptions. Although the land transport has potential to increase cargo volume several times as the current level, the maritime shipping will be still a dominant mode in the intercontinental cargo transport. In addition, the simulation revealed possible negative impacts on Primorye region of Russia, while the shift will advance.
Highlights
Background and Purpose of StudyIn recent years, we have observed strategic initiatives enhancing connectivity in the Eurasian continent
We focus on the impact of reducing the barriers at national border crossing points (BCPs), because they are peculiar to the land transport, different from maritime and air transport and significantly affect the connectivity of the land transport
4.2 Shift from Maritime Shipping to Land Transport As the total volume of cargo shipping demand is fixed at the 2013 level in our model, the increased cargo volume via land borders is thought to shift from maritime shipping
Summary
Background and Purpose of StudyIn recent years, we have observed strategic initiatives enhancing connectivity in the Eurasian continent. China has promoted the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) since 2014 and some CIS countries including Russia established Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in 2015. These initiatives should affect international transport structure in the continent, improving railway transport connectivity and its relative competitiveness against other transport modes, including maritime shipping. Under this background, this paper examines two questions. The first question is how significantly the recent strategic policies such as BRI and EAEU could shift container cargo from maritime shipping and land transport. We focus on the impact of reducing the barriers at national border crossing points (BCPs), because they are peculiar to the land transport, different from maritime and air transport and significantly affect the connectivity of the land transport
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