Impacts of Ethanol Expansion on Cropping Patterns and Grain Flows

Abstract

Ethanol expansion has the prospect of having major impacts on cropping patterns and the spatial distribution of grain flows. These changes are in addition to those being driven by developments elsewhere in the world grain economy, including growth in consumption (e.g., China) and production in alternative regions such as Northern Brazil. This article develops a spatial optimization model based on longer-term competitive equilibrium to make projections about cropping patterns and grain shipments from individual ports. Most important among these trends are a shift in area toward corn and away from wheat, a reduction in corn exports, an increase in exports from competitor countries, and changes in domestic and international grain flows.