Impacts of environmental change on sustainable food production in Southwest Ontario, Canada

Abstract

AbstractA sustainable food production system may be defined as an agri‐food sector which over the long term can simultaneously maintain environmental quality, produce a sufficient food supply and provide adequate rewards to primary producers. This paper investigates the implications of two forms of environmental change for sustainable food production in Southwest Ontario, a major agricultural region in Canada. A modified version of the Universal Soil Loss Equation was employed to estimate long‐term erosion, whereas an altered climate was derived from a general circulation model. Crop productivity models were used to estimate the impacts of modified environmental conditions on yields. Mathematical programming models were used to estimate economic viability and food production capacity given these changed conditions. Soil erosion combined with a climatic warming induced by a doubling of atmospheric concentrations of CO2 or its equivalent would contribute to severe declines in resource quality, and result in declines of 18 per cent to 35 per cent in average yields for major grains and oilseeds. On lands with a relatively high natural risk to erosion, the yield‐reducing impacts of erosion and a climatic warming would reduce profits from cash grain farming by 26 per cent, and increase concern about the economic viability of these enterprises. Environmental change would reduce the region's food production potential to 86 per cent of current production levels, and possibly endanger the security of its food supplies. These findings suggest the need to explore strategies which would either prevent future environmental change or mitigate its adverse impacts.