Impacts of COVID-19 on food security, employment and education: An empirical assessment during the early phase of the pandemic

Abstract

•The results showed that COVID-19 reduced food security, employment and education.•The impact was higher in reducing food security more than other considered indicators.•The impacts vary disproportionally by different household groups.•These impacts may change over time as we are on early stage. Background & aimsRecent evidences reveal that COVID-19 will have nontrivial results on the global economies. A balanced intervention is expected from policymakers to exploit the favorable effects of strong controlling actions on the health sector versus the possible economic and social impacts of those actions. The main objective of this study is to empirically quantify the household-level impacts of COVID-19 on food security, employment and education in Ethiopia.MethodsThe study employed propensity score matching and endogenous switching regression methods relying on data collected by the World Bank using high-frequency phone call between April 22 and May 13, 2020 in Ethiopia.ResultsThe results of the study showed that COVID-19 reduced food security while at the same time adversely affected employment and schooling. The results also showed that the impact was significantly higher in reducing household's food security more than the other considered indicators. Furthermore, the results indicated that impacts vary disproportionally by different household groups, and each restriction is not equally important in affecting welfare.ConclusionThe pandemic has affected welfares significantly, though the impact disproportionally varies among the different outcomes. It is not, however, clear how these impacts may change over time. As the pandemic is in its early stage, the condition calls for more researches to be conducted with wider datasets that can fully capture the potential and long-term impacts of the pandemic. It is also clear that these findings point the need of immediate and medium-term policy responses to the spread of the pandemic. The results suggest that ongoing and future government responses should focus on structural changes in social security by developing responsive packages to fight poverty possibly caused by the pandemics and building strong financial institutions to support the recovery of businesses in the medium term, and ensuring the resilience of food supply chains. Finally, this study also sheds light on the effects that COVID-19 has on general welfare in the short-run and points some potential areas that need extra supports. Recent evidences reveal that COVID-19 will have nontrivial results on the global economies. A balanced intervention is expected from policymakers to exploit the favorable effects of strong controlling actions on the health sector versus the possible economic and social impacts of those actions. The main objective of this study is to empirically quantify the household-level impacts of COVID-19 on food security, employment and education in Ethiopia. The study employed propensity score matching and endogenous switching regression methods relying on data collected by the World Bank using high-frequency phone call between April 22 and May 13, 2020 in Ethiopia. The results of the study showed that COVID-19 reduced food security while at the same time adversely affected employment and schooling. The results also showed that the impact was significantly higher in reducing household's food security more than the other considered indicators. Furthermore, the results indicated that impacts vary disproportionally by different household groups, and each restriction is not equally important in affecting welfare. The pandemic has affected welfares significantly, though the impact disproportionally varies among the different outcomes. It is not, however, clear how these impacts may change over time. As the pandemic is in its early stage, the condition calls for more researches to be conducted with wider datasets that can fully capture the potential and long-term impacts of the pandemic. It is also clear that these findings point the need of immediate and medium-term policy responses to the spread of the pandemic. The results suggest that ongoing and future government responses should focus on structural changes in social security by developing responsive packages to fight poverty possibly caused by the pandemics and building strong financial institutions to support the recovery of businesses in the medium term, and ensuring the resilience of food supply chains. Finally, this study also sheds light on the effects that COVID-19 has on general welfare in the short-run and points some potential areas that need extra supports.