Abstract
In this study, the principal purpose has been to investigate the impacts of COVID-19 on GDP, export volumes, remittance and unemployment of Bangladesh and to forecast these variables for a period of time using econometric techniques. The results show that the loss of GDP, export volumes and remittance of Bangladesh in 2020 will be $40984.3387 million, $6540.966 million, $3941.449 million respectively. In terms of percentage, the loss of GDP is 18.08%, export volumes – 18.08%, and remittance – 19.73% of the total values. The predicted values indicate that the Bangladeshi GDP, export volumes and remittance inflows will fall for 3 years, 2 years and 2 years respectively. Due to COVID-19 outbreak, the loss of world GDP will be 14904846.597 million dollars or 17.07% of the total GDP and will experience decrease for 7 years. Thus, Bangladeshi economy will face downturn for a lesser period than the world. The predicted GDP shows that COVID-19 will result in a decline of Bangladeshi GDP and export volumes until 2021, after which they will be have an increase rate of 4.7% and 9.8% respectively. Additionally, prediction of the remittance inflows reveals a decline in 2020, but an increase of 6.692% for 2021. It is also concluded that in 2020 global unemployment rate will be increase by 1.36%, while the unemployment rate in Bangladesh will be increase by 58.23%. This indicator for Bangladesh is very high, but it will fall by 18.72% in 2021 and starting with 2022 it will be increasing by 2.47% for a long period of time. Thus, it can be said that COVID-19 will be a big threat for increasing the unemployment rate for a long period of time. The research testifies that the death rate with respect to confirmed cases is statistically significant at any level. Finally, as no economic indicators other than the unemployment rate will be unreasonably affected, the post COVID-19 economy of Bangladesh will not face undue risk.
Highlights
ISSN 2519-4070 decline in 2020, but an increase of 6.692% for 2021
A common question raised by the people of Bangladesh is whether the impacts of COVID-19 will be a threat for the Bangladeshi economy
Is the post-COVID-19 economy at risk for Bangladesh? To give answers to these questions, the principal purpose of this study is to determine the impact of COVID-19 on Bangladeshi economy and to predict the post COVID-19 economy of Bangladesh using the econometric techniques based on four economic indicator variables, namely GDP, export volumes, remittances and unemployment rate
Summary
It has been observed that any pandemic has multi-dimensional impacts in the world whose effects continue for a long time. The other countries in the «top 10» include India (9422636 or 18.35%), Brazil (6016085 or 11.71%), Russia (2124797 or 4.14%), Turkey (1631944 or 3.18%), Argentina (1340120 or 2.61%), Columbia (1321469 or 2.57%), Italy (1115617 or 2.17%), Germany (984200 or 1.92%), and Mexico (927754 or 1.81%) From these results, this study predicts that if corona virus keeps spreading at current rate, the number of new cases is going to increase by 8.6% each day. Asia has the highest number of recovered cases with 33.97% of the total, followed by North America, South America, Europe, Africa and Oceania. The growth rate of daily total deaths is the highest in South America (2.93%), followed by Africa, North America, Europe, Asia, and Oceania. The growth rate of daily confirmed cases is highest for North America with 4.01%, followed by Africa, South America, Europe, Asia and Oceania. The calculated ratio of change of average deaths to total confirmed cases is highest for North America (3.06%), followed by South America, Africa, Oceania, Europe and Asia. The paper is organized as follows: Section II presents a literature review; Section III discusses data sources and empirical models; Section IV discusses social impacts, and section V concludes with a summary of the main findings and policy implications
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