Impacts of coal use phase-out in China on the atmospheric environment: (2) public health and global radiative forcing

Abstract

In the second of two companion papers, we quantify the potential ultimate benefits for public health and radiative forcing from the phase-out of coal use in China. With the baseline year of 2015, we estimate that the premature deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in China will be reduced by 375,000 persons and 8.90 × 106 years (GEMM model), which is 41.7% and 54.5% of the total number of premature deaths and DALYs caused by PM2.5 from anthropogenic sources, effectively improving the health of the population. The provinces with the most significant decreases in fatalities and disabilities are concentrated in large coal-consuming provinces. Regarding age distribution, the phase-out of coal use will effectively extend the life expectancy of the elderly, especially in the age group of 65–89 years. Health benefits’ growth rate upsurges notably once more than half of coal is phased out. Based on the Parallel Offline Radiative Transfer (PORT) model, the global annual average radiative forcing due to changes in short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), including sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, and O3 associated with the phase-out of coal use, is 0.34 W m−2, -0.048 W m−2, 0.00064 W m−2, and 0.00055 W m−2, respectively. The complete phase-out of coal use in China also reduces the emission of long-lived climate pollutants (LLCPs) and causes negative radiative forcing. Among them, the global annual average radiative forcing of CO2, CH4, and N2O is −0.0073 W m−2, -5.48 × 10−5 W m−2, -1.60 × 10−5 W m−2. If the lifetimes of pollutants are considered, the total global reduction in heat uptake is −2.29 × 107 J m−2 over 100 years, dominated by the decrease of CO2, which will slow the rate of global warming and thus may reduce the probability of extreme weather events. This report will incentivize relevant policymakers to remove coal significantly to achieve carbon neutrality.