Impacts of Climate Warming and Humidification on Vegetation Activity over the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

Vegetation is the most vulnerable component of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. In recent decades, there has been a significant warming and humidification trend in the Tibetan Plateau. It is crucial to study and analyze the impact of these changes on the ecosystem and their future trends for protecting the Tibetan Plateau’s ecosystem. This study collected and analyzed climate (temperature, precipitation) data and vegetation index data (the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the leaf area index (LAI)), as well as data from significance tests combined with Mann–Kendall tests and Sen’s slope estimation. The effects of temperature and precipitation factors on vegetation indices were revealed, leading to a multiple regression model predicting NDVI and LAI value changes under climate change from 2021 to 2100. The results indicate a general increase in temperature and precipitation levels across the Tibetan Plateau between 2000 and 2020. The climate experienced a clear pattern of warming and moist conditions, with the southeast region experiencing warmer and wetter conditions, and the northwest region experiencing drier and colder conditions. The trends of the LAI and NDVI values of the Tibetan Plateau indicated a general increase, with a gradual decline from the southeast to the northwest. Precipitation and temperature were differentially correlated with the NDVI and LAI values across various regions of the plateau. Between 2021 and 2100, the Tibetan Plateau is expected to experience year-on-year increases in both precipitation and temperature levels. However, the increase in precipitation was found to be less significant than that of the climate and, comparatively, smoother. There is a certain correlation between the NDVI and LAI values, and the changes in temperature and precipitation. The variations of both are more influenced by temperature than precipitation, with an overall increasing trend observed over the years, which is also quite evident. This study could serve as a scientific foundation and a point of reference for monitoring vegetation changes over a long period of time on the plateau, as well as for the planning and execution of ecological development in the Tibetan Plateau.