Impacts of climate change/variability on the streamflow in the Yellow River Basin, China

Abstract

Changes of streamflow reflect combined effects of climate, soil and vegetation in the basin scale. This study was conducted to investigate the response of streamflow to the climate changes/variability in different scales of the Yellow River Basin (YRB). The spatial distribution and temporal trends were explored for precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PE) during 1961–2000 to illustrate climate change/variability and impacts of climate change/variability on streamflow were explained by investigating the relationship of precipitation, PE and streamflow in the YRB. The results presented that: (i) precipitation and PE exhibited different spatial distribution patterns and temporal trends in different regions, and most stations showed negative trends for precipitation in the basin; (ii) the relationship of streamflow with precipitation and PE showed high nonlinearity, and the magnitudes and patterns of streamflow response to precipitation and PE displayed different patterns varied with the dry conditions in different region or years; and (iii) the precipitation elasticity of streamflow ( ɛ P ) was 1.80, 1.08, 1.78 and 1.95 in Lanzhou, Toudaoguai, Huayuankou and Lijin respectively, while the PE elasticity of streamflow ( ɛ ET ) was −3.41, −4.40, −4.52 and −4.20 in above four scales, respectively, from which can be seen that streamflow was more sensitive to precipitation in wet region than in arid region and inversely it was more sensitive to PE in arid regions than in wet regions. Furthermore, precipitation elasticity of streamflow calculated from the partial correlation presented a reasonable result to show the combined effect of precipitation and PE on streamflow.