Abstract
Abstract. The Inn River basin is a highly relevant study region in terms of potential hydrological impacts of climate change and cross boundary water management tasks in the Alpine Space. Regional analyses in this catchment were performed within the EU co-funded project AdaptAlp. Objective of the study was to gain scientifically based knowledge about impacts of climate change on the water balance and runoff regime for the Inn River basin, this being fundamental for the derivation of adaptation measures. An ensemble of regional climate projections is formed by combinations of global and regional climate models on the basis of both statistical and bias-corrected dynamical downscaling procedures. Several available reference climate datasets for the study region are taken into account. As impact model, the process-oriented hydrological model WaSiM-ETH is set up. As expected, regional climate projections indicate temperature increases for the future in the study area. Projections of precipitation change are less homogenous, especially regarding winter months, though most indicate a decrease in the summer. Hydrological simulation results point towards climate induced changes in the water regime of the study region. The analysis of hydrological projections at both ends of the ensemble bandwidth is a source of adaptation relevant information regarding low-flow and high-flow conditions. According to a "drought-prone scenario", mean monthly low flow could decrease up to −40% in the time frame of 2071–2100. A "high-flow-increase-scenario" points towards an increase in mean monthly high flow in the order of +50% in the winter, whilst showing a decrease in autumn.
Highlights
The hydrology of Alpine catchments plays a crucial role for water availability in central Europe
Regional analyses for the Inn River basin were performed within the EU co-funded project AdaptAlp (2008–2011)
The results show that rare extreme low-flow events could become more severe, with decreases in the order of −20 % for low-flow discharge events occurring statistically every 50 yr (NQ50) shown by WET10 eh for the period 2071–2100 compared with 1971–2000
Summary
The hydrology of Alpine catchments plays a crucial role for water availability in central Europe. The region is sensitive to climate change and has experienced a temperature increase of 1.2 ◦C in the past century. This is more than twice as high as the average increase in the Northern Hemisphere. The Inn River basin is a highly relevant study region in terms of potential impacts of climate change on hydrological processes and cross boundary water management tasks. The objective of the study was to gain scientifically based knowledge about the impacts of climate change on the water regime of the Inn River and to derive information on which to base adaptation measures in the context of multiple uncertainties in the applied methods
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