Abstract
Climate change is one of the greatest issues for human society. The objective of this study is to assess the impacts of future climate change on seasonal average discharge and monthly water budget in a small headwater catchment, located on the Grande River basin, in Minas Gerais, Brazil. The assessment is carried out using the hydrology model, DHSVM. The atmospheric forcing to drive the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM) is derived from the downscaling of the HadGEM2-ES projections by the Eta Regional Climate Model, at 5-km high resolution. The projections assume the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 IPCC AR5 emission scenarios. Baseline period was taken between 1961 and 1990. The projections are assessed in three time slices (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2099). The climate change is assessed in time slices of 30 years and in comparison against the baseline period to evaluate the hydrological changes in the catchment. The results showed differences in the hydrological behavior between the emission scenarios and though time slices. Reductions in the magnitude of the seasonal average discharge and monthly water budget may alter the water availability. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, results show greater reductions in the water availability in the first time slice, whereas under RCP8.5 scenario greater reductions are indicated in the third time slice.
Highlights
The Southeast region of Brazil is extremely relevant for the social and economic development of the country
The objective of this study is to assess the impacts of future climate change on seasonal average discharge and monthly water budget in a small headwater catchment, located on the Grande River basin, in Minas Gerais, Brazil
The climate change is assessed in time slices of 30 years and in comparison against the baseline period to evaluate the hydrological changes in the catchment
Summary
The Southeast region of Brazil is extremely relevant for the social and economic development of the country. The Grande River basin is located in southeastern Brazil and the Tropical Atlantic Forest in its headwater region (Mantiqueira Range), should be highlighted as one of the most important biodiversity hotspot of the world [1] [2]. In this basin, the annual variability of precipitation and temperature can be critical for human water consumption, irrigation, and hydropower generation [3] [4]. The spatial-temporal patterns that characterize the hydrological response of a catchment can be altered due to climate changes. Climatic changes may impact the water balance in several ways, such as changes in the evapotranspiration, soil moisture content, groundwater storage and discharge regime [12] [13] [14] [15]
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