Impacts of climate change on the distribution of Cymbidium kanran and the simulation of distribution pattern

Abstract

In this study, data of 19 climatic factors were downloaded from the World Climate website. A total of 233 Cymbidium kanran distribution data were obtained through online review and field visits. Using MaxEnt model and combined with ArcGIS spatial analysis technology, the potential distribution area and distribution pattern of C. kanran in different periods were simulated, as well as its distribution during the last glacial period and 2070. The results showed that the curve indexes (AUC) value of the model training set was 0.957, and the AUC value of the verification set was 0.953, indicating that the prediction accuracy of the model was very high. The current distribution of C. kanran was mostly affected by the driest quarter precipitation, mean annual precipitation, wettest quarter precipitation, and mean annual temperature range. The contribution rates were 50.3%, 15.9%, 8.4% and 4.4%, respectively, with the total contribution rate being 79.0%. In the last glacial period, C. kanran mainly distributed in Wuyi Mountain, Luojing Mountain, Nanling, Taiwan's five major mountains and some hills in the northern part of Guangxi. From now to 2070, the distribution of C. kanran area will decrease by 22.4%. The southwestern part of Guangxi, the central part of Yunnan, and the junctions of Jiangxi, Fujian and Guangdong provinces will expand, while that in eastern Jiangxi, western Fujian, and the border between these two provinces will shrink.