Abstract
Global climate change is causing notable shifts in the environmental suitability of the main regions involved in potato cultivation and has, thus, changed the production potential of potatoes. These shifts can be mapped at fine scales to better understand climate change within areas of potato cultivation and to find infrastructural- and breeding-based solutions. As a case study, we have identified and mapped the structural and spatial shifts that occurred in areas suitable for potato cultivation in Jilin Province, China. We identified a discontinuity in climate change trends between 1961 and 2018 based on data for Jilin Province, and analyzed the averages and linear trends for six important climatic parameters. We used the averages of these climatic parameters to establish climate models for the province and determined cultivation using a multi-criteria, decision-based model that integrates Analytical Hierarchy Process Weighted Principal Component Analysis (AHP-PCA) and Geographic Information System (GIS). We mapped the environmentally suitable areas for potato cultivation at a 3-km resolution based on the geo-climate model for each time period and analyzed differences between them. We found that "Most suitable” areas for potato cultivation were mainly distributed in the central area of Jilin Province, “Suitable” areas were located in the northwestern plains, and “Sub-suitable” areas were located in the eastern mountainous areas. In contrast, “Not suitable” areas occur mainly in the high-altitude areas in the east. The areas of “Most suitable” and “Suitable” areas for potato cultivation in Jilin Province were increasing, with increasing rates of 0.37 × 1,000 km2 decade−1 (R2 = 0.58, P < 0.01) and 0.20 × 1,000 km2 decade−1 (R2 = 0.28, P < 0.01), respectively, while the extent of “Sub-suitable” areas is decreasing, with a decreasing rate of 0.58 × 1,000 km2 decade−1 (R2 = 0.53, P < 0.05). The area of “Not suitable” areas had undergone little change. “Most suitable” and “Suitable” areas for potato cultivation showed a trend towards northward expansion. Overall, our results suggest that global climate change has had a positive impact on potato cultivation in Jilin Province over the past 58 years.
Highlights
The global surface temperature has increased by 0.85 °C in the past 130 years, especially in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere[1]
Results obtained from this study show that the increase in the suitability of potato cultivation is more significant in the plains of northwestern Jilin Province than in the mountainous areas of the eastern part
The suitability of potato cultivation in Jilin Province was assessed on the basis of a comprehensive set of criteria associated with the multi-criterion, decision-based Analytical Hierarchy Process Weighted Principal Component Analysis (AHP-Principal Component Analysis (PCA)) approach
Summary
The global surface temperature has increased by 0.85 °C in the past 130 years, especially in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere[1]. Within Jilin Province, long-term and high spatial resolution research on potato cultivation provides a globally and nationally critical reference that is significant for promoting economic growth and development within the potato industry. Higher temperatures increase the rate of crop growth and development, which influence y ield[6,7,8], and climate change leads to shifts in the suitable geographic ranges for the growth of specific crops and cultivars[9,10]. In some cases, the phenology of crop plants is changing within the areas where they are cultivated, leading to temporal shifts in production with major economic impacts[11,12]. Global climate change has shifted the climatic suitability for crops in a region, in the northern high latitudes[16,17,18], which should not be overlooked by farmers. To obtain information on geographic shifts of suitable areas for crop cultivation under climatic conditions is the starting point for adaptation planning in agriculture[41]
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