Impacts of climate change on streamflow of Qinglong River, China

Abstract

Abstract Climate change significantly influences water resources and flood hazards in global watersheds. This study focuses on predicting the impact of climate change on the streamflow of the Qinglong River situated in northern China. The streamflow of the Qinglong River (2021-2100) under two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) was mainly synthesized over multiple timescales. Meteorological data from 31 Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) served as inputs for the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) to conduct hydrological simulations. Results show that: (1) The peak flood flow and average daily streamflow for the RCP4.5 scenario are at least 101.15% and 110.14% of the historical phase, and at least 108.89% and 121.88% of the historical phase for the RCP8.5 scenario. (2) Under both scenarios, the proportion of summer streamflow to the annual total is expected to increase from 61.46% (historical phase) to over 85%, while the proportion of winter streamflow to the annual total is expected to decrease from 8.84% (historical phase) to below 0.5%. (3) Compared to the historical period, the maximum increase in future multi-year average annual streamflow for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios is 30.34%, 31.48%, respectively.