Impacts of Climate Change on Small Island Nations: A Data Science Framework using Remote Sensing and Observational Time Series

Abstract

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) comprise a group of 58 nations identified by the United Nations as facing unique sustainability challenges. These challenges include high exposure to climate change and a lack of data and limited resources. The effects of climate change are already observed in SIDS, notably an increase in the magnitude and frequency of natural disasters, biodiversity loss, ocean acidification, coral bleaching, sea-level rise, and coastal erosion. The coastal zone is considered to be the main economic, environmental, and cultural resource of SIDS, making them particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. This project focuses on quantifying and disentangling coastal changes, including erosion, accretion and coastline stability. Existing literature lacks a comprehensive understanding of the patterns of coastal changes, as well as the main anthropogenic and environmental drivers involved. We address this research gap by quantifying the challenges that SIDS encounter, with a particular emphasis on coastal changes.The approach is data-driven, relying on observational time series extracted from remote sensing (e.g., Sentinel-2, Planet Scope, Landsat missions), in situ measurements (e.g., tide gauge data), and open-access databases. We have developed a robust method based on image segmentation to extract the island's shape over time, enabling us to illustrate the island's dynamics and obtain reliable time series of the coastline position. The main drivers of coastal changes are then identified and quantified using time series analysis methods, including causal inference and discovery methods, for SIDS worldwide. We place a specific focus on the Maldives (Indian Ocean) due to its low elevation and high human activity. Additionally, the methodology expands to investigate a spectrum of issues, including the impacts of human activities (e.g., land reclamation, sand mining, shoreline armouring) on the natural responses of coastlines, as well as the effects of confounding factors or common drivers (e.g., Indian monsoon, tropical cyclones, and El Niño/Southern Oscillation). The ultimate goal is to develop a spatiotemporal variable coastline vulnerability index by integrating socioeconomic and environmental time series data, facilitating the assessment of environmental policies in SIDS.