Abstract
Climate change and associated more frequent, hot or cold, extreme/weather events, as well as increasing temperature may increase future residential demand for electricity for heating and cooling purposes. The paper in hand intends to assess potential impacts of increasing temperature attributed to climate change on seasonal residential electricity consumption in Alexandria city, Egypt. Additionally, it aims to identify and discuss potential soft and hard adaptation options to such impacts. For this purpose, seasonal changes in electricity consumption were investigated. For this purpose, data on monthly residential electricity consumption, population size and income levels at district level as well as maximum monthly temperature in Alexandria city, Egypt over the period 2007-2016 were collected. This is followed by developing a panel-data model to simulate influence of temperature on residential electricity consumption. It was found that there is a significant growth trend over the study period as well as considerable seasonal variation with summer season experienced significant increase in consumption. It was found that increasing temperature, under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, may contribute to significant increase in residential summer electricity consumption by 2050. Different adaptation options to such an increase in consumption, both soft and hard, have been identified and assessed.
Highlights
The paper in hand intends to assess potential impacts of increasing temperature attributed to climate change on seasonal residential electricity consumption in Alexandria city, Egypt
It is expected that climate change may contribute to further increases in electricity consumption for cooling purposes during summer
Conducted regression analysis revealed that current electricity consumption in residential sector in Alexandria is significantly influenced by maximum monthly temperature, along with population size and GDP per capita
Summary
The difference in the daily high and the 22 ̊C is referred to as a cooling-degree day (CDD) [6] It is projected, that climate change and associated increase in temperature as well as extreme weather may have significant impacts on residential electricity demand [7] [8] [11]. It was suggested that the significant growth in residential usage, compared to other users, was partially due the wide spread use of domestic appliances especially air conditioners in the summer season [12] Such rapid growth in residential electricity consumption has led the government since 2008, to introduce block-pricing for the residential and commercial sectors, while reducing electricity subsides for different uses, with the intent of eventually eliminating energy subsidies. The paper in hand aims to assess impacts of climate change, in terms of temperature increase, on residential electricity consumption in Alexandria, Egypt as well as potential adaptation options, in this respect
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