Abstract
Livestock production is a valuable part of US agriculture as it contributes 50% of total agricultural value. Climate change is likely a threat to livestock production, but research regarding the impact of climate change on livestock sectors is limited. This paper examines how climate change affects livestock mix and location. Specifically, we examine climate effects on grazing animals and, in particular, on beef cattle, dairy cattle, goats, and sheep. We examine this in the US based on county-level data by using fractional multinomial logit econometrics. Our results show that climate is an influential determinant of where livestock herds are located and species mix. The impacts of climate vary by species and region. We also find significant influences from geographic characteristics and animal product prices. Subsequently, we project how climate change would influence future livestock mix and location. It reveals a likely growth in beef cow land shares across most of the US with the largest gains in the northwest. We also find substitutions between species as climate change progresses with dairy cows exhibiting the largest reduction.
Highlights
For the past half-century, the climate has been changing and exhibits increased temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and increased frequency of extreme events [1], and this is expected to continue
Since we assume that the dairy cows in the east predominantly use grazing land while those in the west are generally kept in confined conditions, we conducted estimations for the east and west separately
We estimate a fractional multinomial logit econometric model to examine this for dairy cows, beef cows, goats, and sheep
Summary
For the past half-century, the climate has been changing and exhibits increased temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and increased frequency of extreme events [1], and this is expected to continue. Agriculture is sensitive to climate change, and effects have already been felt across the landscape [2]. Livestock production is a valuable part of US agriculture, contributing 50% of total value [4]. According to the 2017 Census of Agriculture, the US beef cattle industry had 32.5 million beef cows in inventory and USD 77.2 billion in sales, accounting for 20% of total US agricultural sales [5]. The poultry industries were the largest livestock commodity in the US, with production valued at around USD 49.2 billion, followed by hogs and pigs at USD 26.3 billion. The sales of milk products from dairy cattle totaled USD 36.7 billion, accounting for 9.5% of total US agriculture sales. Goats and sheep contributed USD 1.03 billion, with goats totaling 2.64 million head and sheep totaling 5.2 million head
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