Abstract
Climate change has determined shifts in distributions of species and is likely to affect species in the future. Our study aimed to (i) demonstrate the linkage between spatial climatic variability and the current and historical Dubas bug (Ommatissus lybicus Bergevin) distribution in Oman and (ii) model areas becoming highly suitable for the pest in the future. The Dubas bug is a pest of date palm trees that can reduce the crop yield by 50% under future climate scenarios in Oman. Projections were made in three species distribution models; generalized linear model, maximum entropy, boosted regression tree using of four global circulation models (GCMs) (a) HadGEM2, (b) CCSM4, (c) MIROC5 and (d) HadGEM2-AO, under four representative concentration pathways (2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. We utilized the most commonly used threshold of maximum sensitivity + specificity for classifying outputs. Results indicated that northern Oman is currently at great risk of Dubas bug infestations (highly suitable climatically) and the infestations level will remain high in 2050 and 2070. Other non-climatic integrated pest management methods may be greater value than climatic parameters for monitoring infestation levels, and may provide more effective strategies to manage Dubas bug infestations in Oman. This would ensure the continuing competitiveness of Oman in the global date fruit market and preserve national yields.
Highlights
Ommatissus lybicus, formerly classified as the “lybicus” variety of O. binotatus and commonly described as the “Old World date bug” or “Dubas bug”, was elevated taxonomically to the status of species as O. lybicus Bergevin (Asche & Wilson, 1989)
area under curve (AUC) is considered a reliable measure of discrimination ability but, when estimations are based only on presence data, has been seen to have limitations in attaining ecological realism in modelled distribution (Jiménez-Valverde, 2014; Lobo, Jiménez-Valverde & Real, 2008), we introduced true skill statistic (TSS) for validating our model
Positive linkage between current spatial climatic variability and the Dubas bug distribution Considering all examined climatic variables with the historical pest occurrence records, our result showed that wind speed, minimum temperature and dew points were the three factors that showed significant correlations in ordinary least squares (OLS) model
Summary
Ommatissus lybicus, formerly classified as the “lybicus” variety of O. binotatus and commonly described as the “Old World date bug” or “Dubas bug”, was elevated taxonomically to the status of species as O. lybicus Bergevin (Asche & Wilson, 1989). Renowned for its voluminous production of honeydew (Dowson, 1936), the Dubas bug attacks date palms in the Mediterranean, which appear to be its sole host. The wings are clear, with visible blood vessels concentrated at the apex, How to cite this article Shabani et al (2018), Impacts of climate change on infestations of Dubas bug (Ommatissus lybicus Bergevin) on date palms in Oman.
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