Abstract
Climate change is taking special attention among the economic agents, especially due to the uncertainties and risks associated with it. In countries with a significant share of renewables in their energy matrix, this phenomenon implies on challenges for the energy planning in future scenarios. In this context, this study establishes a correlation between energy security and climate change by understanding the ability to generate hydroelectric power in large-scale hydroelectric (HEP) and small hydroelectric plants (SHP), in the Alto Paranapanema Basin (São Paulo, Brazil), a region with rainfall anomalies and water flow changes due to climate change. This region was chosen based on its future scenarios on climate change, especially those of rainfall anomalies and change in water flow, using the Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure (SMAP) mathematical model. The water flow was simulated in the HidroLab model, resulting in the generation of hydroelectric power. The results indicated a loss of generation capacity, that can be attributed to negative anomalies of rainfall and its direct influence on river flow, which is a fundamental factor in hydropower generation. Thus, this study draws attention to the importance of considering climate vulnerability in energy planning now and in the future.
Highlights
Global climate variability, especially climate change and global warming, has become a major concern for governments, NGOs, companies, and society in general as its impacts on economies, population, food production, and the environment
The subsequent issue is why this discrepancy did not occur in the Jurumirim HEP simulation since rainfall was of the same quantity and all the hydroelectric plants are located in the same geographical region
The explanation for this discrepancy is that the Jurumirim HEP has a reservoir which allows it to store water and better manage and control the water flow to the plant turbines
Summary
Especially climate change and global warming, has become a major concern for governments, NGOs, companies, and society in general as its impacts on economies, population, food production, and the environment. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was categorical in stating that the observed global warming of the past 50 years is due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases generated by human activities. These greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide and methane, have the highest atmospheric concentrations in the last 650 000 years of the history of the planet. Extreme precipitation events over most mid-latitude land masses and over wet tropical regions will very likely become more intense and more frequent as global mean surface temperature increases. In all scenarios studied by IPCC, it is likely that the area encompassed by monsoon systems will increase and monsoon precipitation is likely to intensify and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related precipitation variability on regional scales will likely intensify (IPCC, 2014)
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