Abstract
The conterminous United States includes national forests and grasslands that provide ecological, social, economic, recreational, and aesthetic services. Future climate change can alter long-term hydroclimatic conditions of national forests and grasslands and lead to negative consequences. This study characterizes shifts in hydroclimatology and basin characteristics of US National Forests (NFs) and National Grasslands (NGs) in response to climate change over the 21st century under the DRY, MIDDLE, and WET climate models with the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 emission scenario. Climatic projections for three climate models ranging from the driest to wettest conditions were obtained from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) dataset. Then, the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model was used to model hydrological responses of the selected future climates. Changes in regional hydroclimatic conditions of NFs and NGs were assessed by the magnitude and direction of movements in the Budyko space. The Fu’s equation was applied to estimate changes in basin characteristics. The results indicate that NFs and NGs are likely to experience larger changes in basin characteristics compared to the average of the United States. In general, across the conterminous US, the NFs in mountainous regions are likely to have larger changes in hydroclimatic variables than NFs with lower elevation and NGs. Comparing Forest Service regions, Pacific Northwest, Intermountain, and Northern regions may have a less arid climate with lower freshwater availability. The Southwestern, Northern, Intermountain, and Rocky Mountain regions are likely to experience higher shifts in their basin characteristics. This study can help environmental scientists, and land and water managers improve future land management plans.
Highlights
The United States National Forest System includes National Forests (NFs) and National Grasslands (NGs), which are divided into eight regions in the conterminous UnitedStates (CONUS) managed by the U.S Forest Service (USFS) [1]
Significant progress has been made in understanding the effects of climate change on US forests and grasslands [2,4,10,14,15,16], there is a lack of comparative studies for assessing the impacts of climate change on regional hydroclimatic conditions and basin characteristics of NFs and
Hydroclimatic variables of NGs and NFs may differently respond to climate change
Summary
The United States National Forest System includes National Forests (NFs) and National Grasslands (NGs), which are divided into eight regions in the conterminous UnitedStates (CONUS) managed by the U.S Forest Service (USFS) [1]. A challenge for the agency is that climate change may lead to shifts in hydroclimatic conditions of NFs and NGs, such as a decrease in freshwater availability and may cause changes in the structure and composition of forests and grasslands at various spatial and temporal scales [2,5,6,7,8,9,10]. This study characterizes changes in regional hydroclimatology and basin characteristics of NFs and NGs across the CONUS. Significant progress has been made in understanding the effects of climate change on US forests and grasslands [2,4,10,14,15,16], there is a lack of comparative studies for assessing the impacts of climate change on regional hydroclimatic conditions and basin characteristics of NFs and NGs at the local and national scales [16]
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