Impacts of climate change on hulless barley security in plateau region: A case study of Lhasa River basin in Tibet, China

Abstract

AbstractAccurate understanding of the impacts of climate change on hulless barley and river in the Lhasa River Basin is of great significance to food security and water resources management in the plateau region. It is important to explore the relationship between hulless barley and river under the background of climate change for the comprehensive and coordinated development of agriculture and water conservancy. Based on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing platform, the Random Forest algorithm was used to obtain the spatio‐temporal variation of hulless barley and river in the Lhasa River Basin from 2010 to 2020. The overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient of classification results were 89.54% and 85.96%, respectively. The average area and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of hulless barley from 2010 to 2020 were 178.46 km2 and 0.69, respectively. The increase of accumulated precipitation, number of precipitation days, average dew point temperature (ADPT) and average wind speed (AWS) promoted the growth of hulless barley, with NDVI significant increasing rate of 0.0173 (R2 = 0.764, p < 0.001). The combined effects of human activities (construction of water conservancy facilities and mining activities), ADPT and AWS resulted in a significant decrease (decreasing rate: 10.8682 km2/year, p < 0.01) in river area during 2010–2020. There was a significant negative correlation (R2 = 0.722, p < 0.01) between hulless barley NDVI and river area driven by climate factors. The changes in hulless barley gravity center and river gravity center were consistent, and both shifted in the northeast direction. These results provide a scientific understanding of the impacts of plateau climate change on agriculture and water resource. The land cover maps of the Lhasa River Basin with long time series and high spatial resolution were drawn. Our study verified the relevance between hulless barley gravity center and river gravity center as well as the internal relationship between hulless barley growth and river area. Furthermore, we explored the interrelation relationships among hulless barley, the Lhasa River area and climate factors.