Abstract
Tephritid fruit flies are among the most destructive horticultural pests posing risks to Australia’s multi-billion-dollar horticulture industry. Currently, there are 11 pest fruit fly species of economic concern in Australia. Of these, nine are native to this continent (Bactrocera aquilonis, B. bryoniae, B. halfordiae, B. jarvisi, B. kraussi, B. musae, B. neohumeralis, B. tryoni and Zeugodacus cucumis), while B. frauenfeldi and Ceratitis capitata are introduced. To varying degrees these species are costly to Australia’s horticulture through in-farm management, monitoring to demonstrate pest freedom, quarantine and trade restrictions, and crop losses. Here, we used a common species distribution model, Maxent, to assess climate suitability for these 11 species under baseline (1960–1990) and future climate scenarios for Australia. Projections indicate that the Wet Tropics is likely to be vulnerable to all 11 species until at least 2070, with the east coast of Australia also likely to remain vulnerable to multiple species. While the Cape York Peninsula and Northern Territory are projected to have suitable climate for numerous species, extrapolation to novel climates in these areas decreases confidence in model projections. The climate suitability of major horticulture areas currently in eastern Queensland, southern-central New South Wales and southern Victoria to these pests may increase as climate changes. By highlighting areas at risk of pest range expansion in the future our study may guide Australia’s horticulture industry in developing effective monitoring and management strategies.
Highlights
Tephritid fruit flies are one of the most destructive and economically significant pest insect families, attacking a wide range of fruit and vegetables
Our model suggested that, during the baseline period, climatically suitable habitat for B. aquilonis existed in the northern regions of the Northern Territory and Western Australia, as well as northern Queensland where this fly has not been reported (S1 File)
Our model suggests that suitable habitat for C. capitata for the baseline occurred throughout Western Australia, the Northern Territory, the east coast of Queensland to New South Wales (NSW) and South Australia (S1 File)
Summary
Tephritid fruit flies are one of the most destructive and economically significant pest insect families, attacking a wide range of fruit and vegetables. In Australia, the average annual value of crops susceptible to fruit flies is ~$4.8 billion [1], and the National Fruit Fly Strategy has identified 46 species as ‘high priority pests’ [2] of concern. The majority of these species are exotic to Australia, primarily found in South-East Asia and the South. Code availability All modelling and post-modelling analyses and calculation of statistics were performed in R version 3.1.2. We used the sp and raster packages for preparation and manipulation of spatial data, the dismo package to fit Maxent models, and custom R code for rapid projection of fitted models
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