Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields in South Gonder Zone, Ethiopia

Abstract

Agriculture is the most susceptible sector to climate change related hazards. This is due to the fact that climate change affects the two most important direct agricultural production inputs and these are precipitation and temperature. The impacts of climate change on crop production and coping mechanism differ from place to place which is situated in different agro-ecological zones. Therefore, this study analyzed the impacts of climate change on crop yields in three purposively selected woreda’s of south Gonder Zone. Primary and secondary data were used for the study. In this paper, climate data were taken from Bahir Dar Meteorological Agency (BDMA) while crop yield data were obtained from South Gonder Zone Agricultural Development Office (SGZADO). The data were analyzed using SPSS version 20.0 and Microsoft Excel in order to evaluate the impact of climate change on the yields of different crops in South Gonder Zone, Ethiopia. Multiple regression, trend analysis and correlation analytical techniques were used to anlyze the data. The result showed that the annual total rainfall and mean annual temperature have been increased by an average of 126.52mm (p<0.01) and 0.531°C (P<0.01) per year respectively for Addis Zemen Station. This confirms the occurrence of global warming at Addis Zemen station. An increasing trend of crop yield data for rice, teff and maize were observed from 2003-2012 for Addis Zemen station while an increasing trend of crop yield data for teff, wheat, barley, maize, bean and pea have been observed from 2003-2012 for Mekane Eyesus stations. The result obtained from the analysis carried out indicated that the impact of rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature have been statistically insignificant except rainfall against teff, minimum temperature for teff and chickpea crops and maximum temperature for wheat, barley and pea cereal crops at 95% and 99% probability level whereas the impact of climate on the yield of rice, maize,sorghum, bean and cowpea have been statistically insignificant. Efforts should be made to increase the cultivation of crops on which the impacts of climate on their yield is insignificant.